23 Jul · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1552
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Sopko
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1481
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Sopko stays under total as favourite 62% (29)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+71
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.