23 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1376
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Regner
MR
🇨🇿Milan Regner
ELO 1411
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Syroha🌟Regner rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (61)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 70% · 1.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.