23 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1571
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Just
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1543
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cermak🌟Cermak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (101)
Fair odds · Just
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H13-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.