23 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Malek
ELO 1436
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ulrych
MU
🇨🇿Martin Ulrych
ELO 1493
FormLWLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Ulrych
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+57
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.