23 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1662
FormWWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wawrosz
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1588
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Navedla🌟Wawrosz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (140)
Fair odds · Wawrosz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+74
H2H14-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.