23 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Matej Volf
ELO 1481
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cermak
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1543
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Cermak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H11-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.