23 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1610
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Louda
VV
🇨🇿Viktor Vejvoda
ELO 1547
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vejvoda
Fair odds · Louda
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H37-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.