23 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇨🇿Pavel Gireth
ELO 1735
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Gireth
ZB
🇨🇿Zdenek Bilek
ELO 1730
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bilek🌟Bilek covers set handicap as underdog 65% (40)
Fair odds · Gireth
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.