23 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1501
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zurek
MB
🇨🇿Marek Blejchar
ELO 1489
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Blejchar
Fair odds · Zurek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~72 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.