24 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1649
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jr
MH
🇨🇿Martin Huk
ELO 1604
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Huk
Fair odds · Jr
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H55-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.