23 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Matous Klimenta
ELO 1676
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vales
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Vales
ELO 1721
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Klimenta🌟Vales rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (94)
Fair odds · Vales
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.