23 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇨🇿Pavel Gireth
ELO 1735
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gireth
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Vales
ELO 1721
FormLLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vales🌟Vales covers set handicap as underdog 65% (46)
Fair odds · Gireth
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.