24 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1526
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Urbaniec
RU
🇨🇿Radim Urbaniec
ELO 1564
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 71% (52)
Fair odds · Urbaniec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H16-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.