24 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1633
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1649
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruzicka
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H29-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.