24 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1390
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Barta
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1359
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chalupnicek🌟Barta stays under total as favourite 66% (50)
Fair odds · Barta
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.