24 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jakub Pilch
ELO 1602
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Pilch
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1526
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 71% (52)
Fair odds · Pilch
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+76
H2H16-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.