24 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1569
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hofman
AB
🇨🇿Adam Brazda
ELO 1489
FormLLWWW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brazda🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (56)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+80
H2H14-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.