24 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JC
🇨🇿Jan Cernik
ELO 1722
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Cernik
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1715
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mares🌟Mares covers set handicap as underdog 65% (116)
Fair odds · Cernik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H19-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.