24 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1715
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vales
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Vales
ELO 1720
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vales🌟Vales rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (94)
Fair odds · Vales
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H32-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.