24 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kern
ELO 1554
FormWWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kern
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1490
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Kern stays under total as favourite 70% (33)
Fair odds · Kern
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.