25 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Schwan
ELO 1529
FormLLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schwan
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1492
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Simecek covers set handicap as underdog 63% (46)
Fair odds · Schwan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.