25 Jul · 02:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RU
🇨🇿Roman Urban
ELO 1506
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Urban
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Necas
ELO 1453
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Necas goes over total as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.