25 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Miroslav Necas
ELO 1453
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Regner
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1463
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Necas🌟Necas goes over total as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.