25 Jul · 03:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1506
FormLWLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Tuma
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1510
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tuma🌟Bayer covers set handicap as underdog 66% (169)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H21-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.