25 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LH
🇨🇿Leos Havrda
ELO 1276
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vrabec
MV
🇨🇿Milan Vrabec
ELO 1319
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Havrda stays under total as underdog 65% (57)
Fair odds · Vrabec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.