25 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vondrak
ELO 1599
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vondrak
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1570
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wagner🌟Wagner covers set handicap as underdog 81% (21)
Fair odds · Vondrak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.