25 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1625
FormWWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cabis
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1654
FormWWWLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Paril🌟Cabis rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (118)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H25-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.