25 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇨🇿Alfred Rinka
ELO 1496
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schwan
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Schwan
ELO 1529
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Schwan
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.