26 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1525
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Tuma
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1494
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobisek🌟Sobisek covers set handicap as underdog 63% (113)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H46-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.