26 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1409
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Barta
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1351
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🌟Barta stays under total as favourite 66% (53)
Fair odds · Barta
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H19-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.