26 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Michal Blaha
ELO 1421
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Blaha
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1392
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🌟Toth covers set handicap as underdog 74% (19)
Fair odds · Blaha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H5-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.