26 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1558
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Machander
ER
🇨🇿Evzen Rychlik
ELO 1528
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rychlik🌟Rychlik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Machander
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H6-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.