26 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇨🇿Jan Pleskot
ELO 1407
FormLLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Regner
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1480
FormLWWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pleskot🌟Pleskot covers set handicap as underdog 62% (93)
Fair odds · Regner
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+73
H2H32-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.