26 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Snr
ELO 1544
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Machander
DM
🇨🇿Dalimil Machander
ELO 1558
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Machander
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.