27 Jul · 04:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1604
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vedmoch
RK
🇨🇿Richard Krejci
ELO 1589
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krejci
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.