27 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jiri Jira
ELO 1250
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Serak
PS
🇨🇿Petr Serak
ELO 1291
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jira🌟Jira covers set handicap as underdog 69% (16)
Fair odds · Serak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H9-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.