27 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1530
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Byrtus
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1547
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heczko🌟Byrtus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (66)
Fair odds · Byrtus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H10-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.