27 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1327
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Madle
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1363
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Madle
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H11-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.