27 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Josef Cabak
ELO 1554
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cabak
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1481
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
🌟Simecek covers set handicap as underdog 62% (48)
Fair odds · Cabak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+73
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.