27 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1704
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mares
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zeman
ELO 1680
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zeman🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 27% (119)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H21-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.