27 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1481
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Heczko
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1530
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Simecek🌟Heczko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (54)
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H3-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.