27 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jiri Ruzicka
ELO 1620
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ruzicka
JS
🇨🇿Jan Simecek
ELO 1591
FormLLWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Simecek
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.