27 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Malek
ELO 1471
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trinta
MT
🇨🇿Mihail Trinta
ELO 1511
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Trinta
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H17-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.