27 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1585
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cabis
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1653
FormWWLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 66% (173)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H10-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.