27 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇨🇿Milan Jasek
ELO 1498
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Jasek
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1463
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zurek🌟Jasek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (49)
Fair odds · Jasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 41% · 2.42· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.