27 Jul · 13:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1588
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chalupa
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1488
FormLLLLL
55%
45%
🌟Szotek stays under total as underdog 68% (59)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+100
H2H3-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+100)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)