27 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1588
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Chalupa
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1535
FormLWLWL
53%
47%
🌟Chalupa rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (92)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H10-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.