27 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1549
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Parhomenko
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1528
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pavelka
Fair odds · Parhomenko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H24-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.