28 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DP
🇨🇿Dmitro Parhomenko
ELO 1545
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Plachy
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Plachy
ELO 1568
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Parhomenko
Fair odds · Plachy
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H51-41
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.