29 Jul · 01:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1367
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Vaclavik
MV
🇨🇿Miroslav Vaclavik
ELO 1397
FormWWWWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Vaclavik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H15-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.